Why are economists already talking about a “recovery” while the banking system has not yet been restructured, the financial regulations have not been laid out, the health care issue has not really been solved, education is still clearly lacking resources… no change has occurred. Sure, the US economy will show growth, but what good is that if we return to the old ways which got us in the crisis in the first place?
If not now (or, a couple of weeks ago), are Governments going to be able/willing to restructure anything when the economies return to their “healthy states”?
Well, we can recover from the crisis without necessarily getting on stable long-term footing. The result of that will probably be boom-bust cycles. A few good years followed by a few bad followed by a few good followed by a few bad. It’ll be an excellent economy for lovers of volatility. But that said, returning to a more normal unemployment rating (5 or 6 percent, say) would be a real improvement over where we are now. My concern, however, is that recovery will sap the political system of the will to make the long-term changes.
On the other hand, it’s not clear the political system ever had the will for the long-term changes.